The High Oil Price Conundrum

Montreal, Canada The bears are sweating in the oil pits… U.S. crude oil reserves are sitting at a 27-year high this week. Despite soaring inventories, which would normally depress prices, West Texas crude oil opens the day at $78.91 a barrel. That’s a price level that’s certainly not consistent with bulging supplies of the stuff. Oil has declined about 2% in 2010 while most other raw materials are heading through the roof. That includes the metals – both industrial and precious – as the dollar has corrected heavily recently. The metals typically rally the most amid dollar weakness

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The High Oil Price Conundrum

A Bar Full of Drunks

Montreal, Canada Is the global exchange rate system as we know coming to an end? The events in the United States and Europe recently suggest the next global crisis will be a currency-based fiasco. I remember vividly interviewing my mentor in this business, Jim Rogers, back in the spring of 1995 when I asked him about the global exchange rate mechanism and the future of the dollar. Jim was spot on about currencies fifteen years ago, claiming they were “all a bunch of drunks” in a bar. That statement has stuck in my head for years and has served me well as I remain a steadfast Gold-Bug in every sense of the term. What Jim was referring to – and still believes – is that the U.S. dollar’s reserve status is closer to the end than the beginning.

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A Bar Full of Drunks

Traders Bulletin positioning for new release…

Mark Rose over at Traders Bulletin has got me a little frustrated. I first came across Mark some while ago when he was marketing a system based on spread betting the markets. The performance to be honest wasn’t stellar although to Mark’s credit he acknowledged this and promised to keep trying to improve it. In the meantime he’s been sending out weekly emails that provide useful advice, especially for new traders. In his most recent issue he’s written a very good piece about what people mean when they talk about risk and reward. I thought this deserved some publicity so headed over to his website to see if it was available there.

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Traders Bulletin positioning for new release…

Is Gold a Deflation Hedge?

Montreal, Canada Since the emergence of the credit crisis and resultant global crash two years ago, pundits have endlessly debated about whether gold can perform in an environment of falling prices or deflation. I believe it can. Indeed, gold continues to safeguard portfolios from economic uncertainty and the growing threat of currency wars among the world’s largest trading partners. Despite its historical hedge against rising price, or inflation, it now appears that gold is playing an important role in an age of currency depreciation, credit dislocation and general uncertainty about the global exchange rate system, which is largely dysfunctional and ultimately, inflationary. There isn’t a single country that desires a strong currency; even those that harbor strong units, like Japan and Switzerland until recently, are selling their currencies to depress speculators and boost exports. As for deflation and gold, we don’t have much in the way of deflationary history to work with.

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Is Gold a Deflation Hedge?

How to Build a Super-Strong Mining Portfolio

Montreal, Canada Though I’d wait before going whole-hog at these levels, gold mining stocks are heading much higher before this historical bull market is over. If you’re contemplating a mining portfolio then look no further than to the best-managed gold mutual funds. I like these funds better than indexing. Yeah, they’re more expensive but so what? Check-out the performance. You don’t have to be the Hunt Brothers to make a killing in the precious metals. All you need is a list of the world’s top-performing money-managers in the mining sector. From there, dissect the top ten holdings in each portfolio and voila – an instant gold stock portfolio with incredible potential.

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How to Build a Super-Strong Mining Portfolio

The Master Plan for long term profits…

I know everyone that visits this blog is looking for ways to create additional income or, in some cases, provide an income as they’ve lost a job perhaps. What I try to do is provide some recommendations where you can then do your own research to see if it is suitable for your circumstances. The latest offering I’m recommending is The Master Plan . This is a service for people who are able to open and fund a Betfair account. For those who don’t know what Betfair is it is a website where individuals can wager against each other rather than using a bookmaker. In some countries such as the USA it is not possible to become a member so please bear this in mind when reading the remainder of this post. The Master Plan is a UK horse racing service that uses an automatic trading bot to do all the hard work.

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The Master Plan for long term profits…

Dr. Copper Recovers Sharply, Defies Death-Cross

Montreal, Canada Just a few months ago, the world’s most widely followed industrial metal was turning over, suggesting a new global bear market was approaching. Dr. Copper is often regarded as a leading global economic indicator as the metal is among the most sensitive demand component tied to any cyclical recovery or decline. China is the world’s leading importer of copper and consumes almost 40% of total supply. The infamous “death-cross,” marked by the convergence of short-term and long-term moving averages (see below) signaled trouble ahead for copper and world markets back in May; but since August, copper has staged an impressive recovery and now trades comfortably above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. To confirm Dr. Copper’s recovery, we need to see a sustainable rise in bond market interest rates, which would confirm the cyclical trend of renewed economic growth and, therefore, higher rates. That hasn’t happened yet

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Dr. Copper Recovers Sharply, Defies Death-Cross

Oil & Natural Gas

– Dugald Malcolm, Montreal, Canada OIL The price of oil trades at not far from where it did at this time last year. In fact, aside from a slight pop in prices during the spring, oil prices have been trading sideways. A trading range of $77 +/- 9% , as shown on the chart below, has been in place over the last 12 month period. That sideways movement, however, might soon be coming to a bearish end. In examining the chart a little closer we note that the sideways trading range has also produced a potential Head-and-Shoulders Top formation with a neckline around the bottom of the trading range at around $70. The bearish pattern requires a breach of and 3% close below the neckline to be confirmed. In the meantime, however, several bearish signals have already occurred.

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Oil & Natural Gas

Life insurance settlement

Life insurance settlement is process whereby the holder of a life insurance policy gets immediate money. This process has steadily gained popularity and has become even more popular during these times of recession.

The people who gain out this process are the seller, the buyer and the broker. However, with senior life settlements insurance companies lose out and so do the beneficiaries.This scenario is worth thinking about if you are the one considering sale of your policy. The whole point of taking out the policy was to protect a loved one from financial instability after you are gone. Removing that safety net is a very serious move and should be thought out well. You should also note that you will not get the full value of the policy, but rather an amount which is greater than the surrender value.

For the buyer,life settlements investment is a good financial move to make, albeit a morbid one. What the buyer is doing is taking on the policy at less than what it is worth and collecting on the payoff when the insured eventually dies.When you take the morbid part out of it, you can see the financial sense in it. Although it may seem like you are taking advantage of someone else’s misery, think of it this way. If you don’t buy it someone else will. You are not forcing the person to sell, they are doing it of their own volition for their own reasons.

Basket Case Ukraine Bonds Yield Less than Greece

Montreal, Canada One of the worst managed economies since the onset of the credit crisis more than three years ago is Ukraine. More than any other Eastern European economy – Hungary places a distant second – Ukraine was the closest to financial obliteration in late 2008 as credit markets came undone. The breadbasket of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine is a formidable agricultural producer – especially abundant in grain production. In late 2008, the government scrambled to avoid defaulting, courtesy of the International Monetary Fund, or IMF. Two years later, the economy has turned the corner after witnessing a 1930s-type GDP crash of 15% last year. But a recent global bond offering turned out to be highly successful with the government unloading a $2 billion dollar note in two separate offerings last week. The first tranche was a five-year coupon paying 6.9% and the second note, a ten-year bond yielding 7.8%.

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Basket Case Ukraine Bonds Yield Less than Greece

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